Hillary Clinton Foreign Affairs Essay

People with good analytical skills, and who can think flexibly, are better at predicting what enemy states will do next than top intelligence analysts:“So-called “superforecasters” from Tetlock’s Good Judgement Project — non-experts who are good at turning information into predictions and assessments of confidence — outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified information.” ( by Jeffrey Lewis, Foreign Policy.com, 2016)It’s simple: if you can think outside your own knowledge graph, and follow good arguments, even if they don’t fit with a given plan you’ve been given, then you’re more likely to be able to entertain possibilities that are strange — but true.“I saw the most dangerous young men in the country walking down a corridor saying, “you can’t say that, that’s circular reasoning,” instead of punching each other or hitting the wall,” says Dr Roy van den Brink-Budgen, a former Education Manager at a UK prison and critical thinking expert.